Planete Earth : Projected dates for the exhaustion of exploitable natural resources at current consumption rates

2008

Dates of exhaustion of our planet's economically exploitable resources, at current rates of consumption

environnement, nature, vert, écologie, biologique, planète Terre

Le 20 décembre 2006, un travail bénévole de S. M..

I can see that some may wonder about my sanity.

To announce the end of iron in 2087 and that of nickel in 2048, when our planet's external core is itself a mix of liquid iron & nickel, is enough to make any one smirk.

But imagine having to drill a 6378 kilometer hole through the terrestrial crust, then through the melting mantel of lava to eventually reach the core, considering that the deepest existing oil drill can only reach 11,68 kilometers (on the russian site of Sakhalin-1 Est).

No other technology, however advanced, will be able to take the pressure (around 370 GPa) and the heat (more than 1200º C) in order to siphon off the nickel and iron from the extreme core ( the internal core being probably solid).

On the contents page from "The scarcity of metals & fossil fuels files", one can access the resources which will decline at the current rate of extraction, as regularly mentioned in the "At a sound cost" articles.

Obviously some iron will remain in terrestrial rocks, for which the extraction will require huge amounts of energy. It wouldn't be cost effective.

As for dating accuracy, it is an approximate. In truth, will 10 years more or 10 years less, or even a century really change the situation? One day, soon, we (our children, our grand-children, their children, and their grand-children will only live off recycled metals. That is it. We must change our ways, wether we like it or not.

Michel

Translation Patou Soult

A wealth of energy resources.

If the Antarctic (at the South Pole) is protected by an international treaty, this is certainly not the case for the Arctic. Indeed, the five countries located around the North Pole (Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway and Denmark) are engaged in a race of conquest and laying of claims, with their sights firmly fixed on the region's huge energy resources, trapped under the sea-bed but technically exploitable.

For, according to the latest estimates of American government experts, the Arctic contains "22% of the undiscovered workable fossil fuel reserves; on the planet. Deposits include the equivalent of 90 billion barrels of oil, 47 billion m³ of natural gas and 44 billion m³ of liquefied natural gas. And then there are the deposits of diamonds, nickel, iron, etc. Enough to whet a few appetites. Just like the opportunity for merchant ships of navigating between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, saving 5000 km compared with the customary routes.

And the environment in all that? Probably sacrificed on the altar of limitless consumption. Until it's too late.

http://www.ladepeche.fr

Translation Nicholas ROSE

"Incredible but true! The figures that give you food for thought about the squandering of Earth resources, and how to take action, individually and collectively".

This dreaded billbook, whom practically nobody has heard of (apart from the end of oil), prompts us to question the unconscious functioning of our civilization which is about to hand over to future generations a plundered Earth, emptied of its riches and of its substance.

We know the Earth isn't infinite. Its limited resources cannot meet the voracious demands of billions of humans indefinitely.By living more simply, we must anticipate the shortages of raw materials.

We must anticipate the coming shortages of raw materials, and if possible, save some for future generations by adopting a different lifestyle. Otherwise, tomorrow, all sorts of conflicts may arise to monopolize the remaining energy sources and metal deposits. And this, in less than a generation!

If we want to avoid the worst case scenario, we must be part of the solution! A new civilization must arise here and now, cleaner, thriftier, more respectful and whose aim is the happiness of all and not the self-interest of a few.

Michel Walter for Terre Sacrée (Sacred Earth), 20th July 2008.

Translation Patou Soult 8/09/08

Free of copyright with website : http://terresacree.org

Lydia Morano Solana

The dreaded billbook that shatters the man in the street'

2012 : end of terbium

2018 : end of hafnium

2021 : end of silver

2022 : end of antimony

2023 : end of palladium

2025 : end of indium

end of gold

end of zinc

2028 : end of tin

2030 : end of lead

2038 : end of tantalum

2039 : end of copper

2040 : end of uranium

2048 : end of nickel

2050 : end of oil

2064 : end of platinum

2072 : end of natural gas

2087 : end of iron

2120 : end of cobalt

2139 : end of aluminium

2158 : end of coal

Is it the end of the road?

From 'Science et Vie' special edition No 243, 'Building a long term future', June 2008.

The sources of informations essentially come from the USGS (Geological ministration of the United States). Detailed documentation on each resource can be found on their website : http://minerals.usgs.gov/"

Unpublished clickable graphic

Printable PDF version of the graphic

Hubbert Peak

However problems arising from its disappearance will start to make themselves felt well before any of these fateful dates. On this subject, see Hubbert's peak theory: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory

Once the peak is passed, production declines until the resource is completely exhausted.

In practice, the peak is reached when about half of the resources have been extracted. The inevitable shortage beyond this point is a consequence of the more difficult nature of the remaining deposits, even if considerable amounts remain to be extracted.

Some seams may be just as rich but located at a greater depth (the more accessible lodes having been extracted first) and thus harder to work.

Other deposits are less concentrated, or smaller, or extraction of the metal from the ore is harder.

Mine de Chuquicamata, Atacama, Chili (parmi les plus grandes mines de cuivre)

To extend on the same theme : UPON REFLECTIONof Michel Walter, the scheduled termination of the civilization of wasteet 17 years to go before the end of galvanized steel