It seems laughable to announce the end of iron in 2087 and of nickel in 2048, when our planet is composed of an outer core of molten iron and nickel.

But just imagine the 6,378 kilometre deep hole we"d need to pierce through the Earth"s crust then the mantle of molten lava and finally the outer core, when the deepest oil exploration drilling operations in the world (at the Russian site of East Sakhalin-1) have attained a mere 11.68 kilometres.

No technology, however advanced, will ever be able to withstand the extreme pressure (about 370 GPa) and temperature (over 1200°C), involved in syphoning molten iron or nickel from the earth"s outer core (the internal core probably being solid)

Nickelis a chemical element, with symbol Niand atomic number28.

This metal is the fourteenth non-renewable resource set to disappear thanks to intensive exploitation by mankind.

Remaining workable deposits are estimated at 67 million tonnes.

June 2008: at current rates of production, 1.6 million tonnes per year, deposits will last 40 years.

Extractable deposits of nickel will therefore disappear for good in 2048.

Most of this information comes from the USGS (United States Geological Service) http://minerals.usgs.gov/

This date is only a rough indication. Sources differ, and it could change with the evolution of our civilisation. Most nickel goes into the production of stainless steel (65%) and steel and cast iron alloys (22.5%). Surface coatings: 7.5%.

Problems arising from its disappearance will start to make themselves felt well before this fateful date.

Of course, there will still be nickel in the ground, but in extremely diluted form, rendering extraction impossible.

Even if, thanks to advances in technology, we find new deposits by digging deeper and deeper into the Earth"s crust, this will afford us only a few years"reprieve and will not make a major impact on the situation.

Nickel was created when a star exploded and the Sun and the Earth were formed from the debris, over five billion years ago.

You cannot produce it artificially and there is no substitute. Some asteroids contain the metal but just imagine the energy it would take to bring some back!

Note that nickel (1.25-1.5%) could be extracted from polymetallic nodules present on the ocean floor, at depths of several kilometres. The total quantity of polymetallic nodules on the ocean bed was estimated at over 500 billion tonnes by A.A. Archer in 1981. However, given the depths at which they occur, these deposits are not profitably recoverable.

There will still be recycling but demand, which will keep growing exponentially with the development of the emerging economies, will far outstrip supply.

Australia possesses 35% of known world reserves, followed by New Zealand (11%) and Russia (10%)..

To learn more about nickel, see: http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel

Translation Nicholas ROSE

Don"t miss reading Point of view by Michel Walter, a programme for the end of our civilisation of wastage.